League Outlook
Season Outlook
Projected finish from a full-season Monte Carlo. The Proj Pts band is the 5th–95th percentile of simulated points; the tick is the mean.
Methodology
Rating: our own club Elo (BASE 1500, K=32, home advantage, goal-margin scaled), run over the full match history on one scale so promoted and relegated clubs carry their true strength. Elo+ is that raw rating blended with an xG-based finishing signal — a regression toward true shot quality that softens noise from finishing luck. Elo+ is what we simulate from; raw Elo sits alongside for comparison.
Projection: 10,000 simulated seasons — Poisson goals from the Elo+ difference, preseason mean-reversion and per-club form noise. Finish probabilities and the 90% projected-points band come straight from that simulation.
What this is NOT: not a player-level rating, not a transfer value, not a betting price. One club-strength signal, honestly simulated — use it as an input, not a final say.