futbol projections

resolve futbol

international + club soccer projection suite. inaugural initiative is the 2026 World Cup bracket projection — pre-registered before the tournament opens, evaluated honestly when it closes. multi-league projections + novel-metrics suite come next.

the ways in

how the model has held up, across the site

85%of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus

RPS 0.171World Cup ranked-probability scoretighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)

54%hit rate on 165 NBA playoff callsbeat the closing market

These are the model's results wherever it has been scored so far. Per sport numbers replace them as each sport builds up a record.

what has changed

release notes

2026-06-27

release notes

v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.

2026-06-27

methodology writeups

The Futbol projection is one feature, built honest: what percent of each national team's squad plays for a club ranked in the top 20 by our own Elo system. That Elo was fit on 28,967 raw league matches across five European leagues — zero World Cup data went in, so the model isn't predicting itself.

soon

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.