futbol projections
resolve futbol
international + club soccer projection suite. inaugural initiative is the 2026 World Cup bracket projection — pre-registered before the tournament opens, evaluated honestly when it closes. multi-league projections + novel-metrics suite come next.
sections
world cup
group stage
club index
release notes
2026-06-27
release notes
v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.
2026-06-27
methodology writeups
The Futbol projection is one feature, built honest: what percent of each national team's squad plays for a club ranked in the top 20 by our own Elo system. That Elo was fit on 28,967 raw league matches across five European leagues — zero World Cup data went in, so the model isn't predicting itself.
soon
model retrospectives
what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.
how the projections have held up
85%
of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly
RPS 0.171
World Cup ranked-probability score
54%
hit rate on 165 NBA playoff calls