futbol projections
resolve futbol
We rate every club in ten leagues every day and give each one its chance of winning the title. We call every match before kickoff. Then we publish how those calls turned out.
the ways in
how the calls have held up
what has changed
release notes
2026-06-27
release notes
v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.
2026-06-27
methodology writeups
The Futbol projection is one feature, built honest: what percent of each national team's squad plays for a club ranked in the top 20 by our own Elo system. That Elo was fit on 28,967 raw league matches across five European leagues — zero World Cup data went in, so the model isn't predicting itself.
soon
model retrospectives
what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.